Will house prices go down in 2024?
Affordability and high interest rates have been the talk of the year among homebuyers — and for good reason! Home prices throughout 2023 have overall been stuck high due to low inventory and the tried-and-true rule of supply and demand. This has slowed down home sales since the same home prices that made sense with 3% interest rates didn’t translate so well when applied to 8% mortgage rates.
That being said, will home values finally go down in 2024’s housing market? Though nobody can exactly predict what will happen next year, we can check with our experienced real estate experts are saying and other big names in the industry. Using data from existing home sales and insights from various housing market predictions, we can answer this question with a fair degree of confidence.
Will house prices fall in 2024?
Let’s see what some big names in the real estate industry are saying.
Morgan Stanley
- Their response: Yes, but Marginally
Though Morgan Stanley analysts previously predicted that home prices would fall around 10% into 2024 and even 20% in the case of a recession, its most recent outlook is a reversal. The latest prediction is that prices will be either flat for the year or go down by 3% in 2024. Much of this depends on how long 8% average interest rates remain, as this has greatly impacted buyer and seller behavior.
Morgan Stanley’s chief economist, Ellen Zentner, also shares on the firm’s Thoughts on the Market Podcast:
“We expect home sales to be weak in the first half of next year, but activity should pick up in the second half and further into 2025, and that’s primarily because affordability will improve. We also think homebuilding activity will be stronger in the second half of next year. Home prices should see modest declines as growth and inventory offsets the increase in demand. By 2025, with lower rates, existing home sales should rise more convincingly.”
Goldman Sachs
- Their response: Yes, Moderately
Likewise, Goldman Sachs predicts a moderate decline in home prices in 2024. Lotfi Karoui, the Chief Credit Analyst at Goldman Sachs, told Yahoo Finance:
“For 2024, I think what you’ll see is a gradual cooling down of that market, where we going to continue to bring more supply, gradually, and that should help rebalance the market a little bit. Our forecast is that by the end of 2024, we will likely go back to a 2% type of house price appreciation environment which is roughly around the trend of the last 30 years or so.”
Realtor.com
- Their Response: Yes, a little bit.
Recently, the experts at Realtor.com predicted that home prices would decline by around 1.7% in 2024’s real estate market. To quote them directly, here is their opinion about next year’s outlook:
“We expect that the return to pricing in line with financing costs will begin in 2024, and home prices, mortgage rates and income growth will each contribute to the improvement. Home prices are expected to ease slightly, dropping less than 2% for the year on average.”
National Association of Realtors (NAR)
- Their Response: Probably Not
According to Bankrate’s Housing Market Predictions for 2024, Lawrence Yun, the chief economist of the NAR, says that home prices will rise around 3-4%.
The reason: in spite of higher mortgage rates, ongoing demand is likely to keep prices high. Pairing this observation with an anticipated drop to 6%, Yun expects the lower borrowing rate to stimulate more demand and sustain elevated home prices.
Redfin
- Their Response: No
Chen Zhao, head of the economics team at Redfin, asserts that home price growth is linked with housing inventory. Regarding a price dop, she says:
“Sellers are likely to remain reluctant to give up their low interest rate for a much higher one, so inventory will remain constrained. As more time passes, more homeowners may be ‘forced’ to sell due to life events, so inventory may rise from the current anemic levels, but it’s unlikely to increase much. That means that prices are unlikely to fall on a year-over-year basis, unless demand falters.”
Zillow
- Their Response: Yes, sort of
Zillow shares a lot of good information in its 2024 Housing Market Predictions. Regarding home prices, Zillow’s experts believe that homeowners will “accept that mortgage rates aren’t falling any time soon” and that those previously reluctant to sell will end their standoff with their low-rate house and decide to move. This means that there will be more homes on the market, which can soften price increases.
Therefore, Zillow’s latest prediction is that home values will be mostly steady next year and potentially fall by 0.2%. This prediction is contingent on mortgage rates softening, though.
Freddie Mac
- Their Response: No
Freddie Mac has spoken on this as well. Overall, it predicts a 0.8% price increase in median home prices YOY August 2023 to August 2024 and another 0.9% increase in 2025. This prediction is attributed to millennial first-time homebuyers who are reaching “prime home-buying age” and more likely to look for a new home in spite of high mortgage rates.
Marketplace Homes
- Our Response: It Depends
Since we’ve been operating as a real estate firm for over 20 years, experts in our company also had things to say about 2024 home prices. Here is a hot take from our Chief Revenue Officer, Andy Satkowiak:
“[Home price trends], like everything, may come down to different cities. If we see a 1% rate drop, that will increase people’s ability to move because it makes any new mortgage significantly more affordable (relative to the last year). So, in that instance, the supply of homes would increase, and with great supply, would put downward pressure on prices. HOWEVER, that also makes more people interested in buying. It becomes more affordable for them to afford homes at today’s prices or at lower prices, increasing buyer activity and competition. This would theoretically keep prices static or maybe slightly increase them. So, the regions that will see the biggest swing either way are areas that see more competition from buyers or sellers. Net migration numbers have certainly impacted some regions, like California and Texas, the past couple years.”
Will home prices decline in America in 2024?
As you can see, even the experts are conflicted about whether prices will go up or down in 2024. With housing affordability on top of mind, this is sure to remain a question Americans will be asking as long as there is high demand and lower-than-normal inventory.
Everyone listed has made educated opinions based on their years of experience in real estate and how home prices are connected to housing inventory, interest rates, buyer behavior, job growth, and many other factors. Taken as an average, it seems like if there is to be a home price increase, it won’t be dramatic, and if there is to be a decline, likewise.
The best way to stay ahead of the game is to stay in the loop with your real estate agent so you know when to buy or hold off based on the market you’re working with. For more information on figuring out if it’s a good time to buy in 2024, contact us today! We can help you with a variety of needs from buying new construction with lower interest rates via preferred lender deals, or to find the ideal sale price for a new investment.
